Promosi Digital dan Pertumbuhan Transaksi E-Commerce di Indonesia: Analisis Empiris atas Peran Diskon, Gratis Ongkir, dan PayLater 2019-2025

Abstract

This study examines the growth dynamics of Indonesia's e-commerce transactions and evaluates the role of three highly salient digital promotion instruments - discounts, free shipping, and PayLater - over the 2019-2025 period. The study's novelty lies in connecting official national transaction statistics from Bank Indonesia with enterprise-level e-commerce statistics from BPS and recent empirical findings on promotion-driven consumer behaviour, enabling a more mechanism-oriented interpretation of aggregate transaction growth. The study applies an empirical-descriptive design using official secondary data, primarily Bank Indonesia's payment system statistics, BPS e-commerce statistics, and digital economy policy documents. The analysis combines trend analysis, periodisation, an evidence matrix, and critical cross-source synthesis to maintain transparency and replicability. The findings show that Indonesia's e-commerce transaction value rose from about IDR 205.5 trillion in 2019 to IDR 476 trillion in 2022 and IDR 487 trillion in 2024, with an official projection of around IDR 738 trillion in 2025. The expansion was not driven solely by digital channel adoption; it was also reinforced by a promotional architecture that lowered effective shopping costs, reduced checkout friction, and widened access to deferred payment. Practically, the findings suggest that discounts, free shipping, and PayLater should be managed as calibrated growth instruments rather than merely tactical sales gimmicks. Theoretically, the study supports the view that digital promotion affects e-commerce growth through a combined price, convenience, and liquidity mechanism.