Ketidakstabilan Harga Pangan Strategis: Tinjauan Mikro terhadap Struktur Pasar dan Perilaku Konsumen Indonesia

Abstract

The instability of strategic food prices is a recurring phenomenon that directly affects consumer behavior and household welfare. This article aims to analyze the causes of strategic food price instability from a microeconomic perspective, focusing on market structure and consumer behavior in Indonesia. The study applies a descriptive-comparative analysis of secondary data from the National Food Agency, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), and journal literature for the 2020–2026 period, with curly red chili as the main case and rice and shallots as comparators. The results show that the coefficient of variation of chili prices reached up to 32.43%, far above the 5.05% recorded for rice, and that the Food Price Fluctuation Index (IFPA) for curly red chili stood at -2.083 in January 2026, indicating prices far below their historical average. Prices also differed by more than 3.5 times across provinces in the same month. The analysis shows that a fragmented market structure, with long distribution chains and trade margins reaching 43.09% for red chili, amplifies price volatility. On the consumer side, low demand elasticity for staple commodities makes it difficult for low-income households to adjust their consumption, so price fluctuations directly affect purchasing power. The article concludes that price instability is not merely the result of supply shocks, but also of structural inefficiencies in distribution and limited consumer choice. Policy implications point toward improving distribution chains, strengthening market information, stabilizing supply at its source, and directing market interventions to regions with the highest price disparities.